29 lines
843 B
Python
29 lines
843 B
Python
from __future__ import annotations
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import numpy as np
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from statsmodels.tsa.holtwinters import ExponentialSmoothing
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def forecast_next_n(y: np.ndarray, n: int) -> np.ndarray:
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"""
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轻量级预测：优先 Holt-Winters（对短序列也相对稳），失败则用简单移动平均。
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"""
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y = np.asarray(y, dtype=float)
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if y.size < 3:
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return np.repeat(y[-1] if y.size else 0.0, n)
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try:
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model = ExponentialSmoothing(
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y,
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trend="add",
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seasonal=None,
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initialization_method="estimated",
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)
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fit = model.fit(optimized=True)
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return np.asarray(fit.forecast(n), dtype=float)
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except Exception:
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window = int(min(7, max(3, y.size // 2)))
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avg = float(np.mean(y[-window:])) if y.size else 0.0
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return np.repeat(avg, n)
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